Monday, November 29, 2010

The European Situation

After 4 months of football all over Europe, some things are becoming clear and I can evaluate the situation in the Champions League as well as the EPL and La Liga. We start with the Champions League and it's Spanish dominance.

Group A: Tottenham and Inter Milan are through in this group but what does the future hold for the duo? Well, the winner will most likely face a side they will be favored to defeat with the exception of a possible fixture against Arsenal. The runner-up will face a much sterner challenge against a club from Europe's elite such as Barcelona, Man U, Chelsea, or Real Madrid. However, first place is a toss up as the two sides are only separated by a goal difference of 3 in favour of Tottenham. Both sides are away, where neither have found a win. However, Inter faces last place Bremen, who they should beat. Spurs could draw at the Dutch champions, Twente. My prediction:

1. Inter-13 pts
2. Tottenham-11 pts
3. Twente-6 pts
4. Bremen-2 pts

Group B: Schalke and Lyon are in control of this group despite Benfica having a chance. The Portuguese outfit need a win while hosting 1-point leaders Schalke. However, my prediction is a draw. Now, this doesn't mean Lyon will win the group. Expect a resurgent Hapoel side to surprise the French at home while fighting for a Europa League berth. The Israelites have 4 points from their last two after losing their first 3. Meanwhile, Lyon have back-to-back losses (both away from home, though). My predictions call for a 2-0 Hapoel shocker in France:

1. Schalke-11 pts
2. Lyon-9 pts
3. Hapoel-7 pts (-1 GD)
4. Benfica-7 pts (-4 GD)

Group C: This group looks straight-forward, barring a Valencia upset at the Theatre of Dreams. These aren't even predictions, just stating the facts:

1. Man U-16 pts
2. Valencia-10 pts
3. Rangers-8 pts
4. Bursaspor-0 pts

Group D: BARCA! BARCA! BARCA! BARCA! BARCA! BARCA! BARCA! BARCA! That is the direction this group is headed, despite two away draws from the Catalans. Second place would be interesting but Rubin Kazan, who trail Copenhagen by one point have an assured death in a week in a half--a.k.a: a trip to the Camp Nou.

1. Barcelona-14 pts
2. Copenhagen-10 pts
3. Rubin Kazan-6 pts
4. Panathinaikos-2 pts

Group E: This group is the classic no-draw 12-9-6-3 group. 6-point Basel would be in with a chance to overtake 9-point Roma but they have a killer fixture at the Allianz while the Italians face Cluj-Napoca. My predicitions:

1. Bayern Munich-15 pts
2. Roma-12 pts
3. Basel-6 pts
4. Cluj-Napoca-3 pts

Group F: This group is over, nothing is left here. Because of this, though, expect some exciting football. With Chelsea's poor run of form and 4 points from a possible 15 in the EPL this month, Marseille could pull a shocker while hosting the English champions. Sorry, Zilina, no shocker for you. A drubbing at home is on the cards for the Slovaks.

1. Chelsea-15 pts
2. Marseille-12 pts
3. Spartak Moscow-9 pts
4. Zilina-0 pts

Group G: This is another case of "over". Madrid 1st, Milan 2nd, Ajax 3rd, and Auxerre 4th--because they're facing Madrid.

1. Madrid-13 pts
2. Milan-9 pts
3. Ajax-5 pts
4. Auxerre-3 pts

Group H: In Group H, we have competition. An epic collapse from Arsenal has cost the Gunners 1st place and maybe even a spot in the elimination stages. Their last 2 games, both away, have ended in 2-1 and 2-0 losses to Shaktar Donestk and Braga respectively. 3 points behind Shaktar, 1st place is nearly out of reach, but, due to goal difference, advancing is in the Gunners hands. Luckily for Arsene Wenger, his side will play at the Emirates, where they boast a 11-1 advantage in the UCL. Also, they host point-less Partizan Belgrade. Meanwhile, Braga would be out even with a victory if Arsenal win.

1. Shaktar-13 pts
2. Arsenal-12 pts
3. Braga-10 pts
4. Partizan Belgrade-0 pts


Now that we have looked through the Champions League, I will quickly review the situation in Spain after el Classico.

Barca look simply unstoppable in La Liga. The Catalans have fended off every tough opposition until they face Valencia in March. Perfect in the league since early October, there is no doubt the Catalans will finish in the top 2. Also, as they proved with a stunning performance in a phenomenal 5-0 thrashing of Madrid, they will most likely see off the Whites for the 3rd year running. At this point, I wouldn't bet against the best team in the world.

In the EPL, we have an interesting race developing with the failure of Chelsea in November. 4 points from 15 while Man U were 11 from 15 in that stretch thanks to 5-goal Berba, who joined the likes of Alan Shearer, Andy Cole, and Jermain Defoe as EPL strikers who have found the net 5 times in one match. Arsenal stay in third (only behind Chelsea on goal difference) because they haven't taken advantage of the Blues the way United have. The Gunners have only taken 9 points from the last 15 due to being profligate at the Emirates. Luckily, Fulham should give them 3 points before they face Man U and Chelsea in December. Even Man City are in with a chance (5 points back) and Spurs (6 points back) have a shot, or at least according to Harry Redknapp.

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